Drop rates for Apex Legends’ rarest item suggest loot boxes are still a very bad deal

You'll have to spend $500 - or close to it - but you shouldn't

Apex Legends is a great game. Apex Legends is supported by loot boxes, which are by basically all accounts a bad thing. Respawn’s battle royale is no exception in that regard, and players have finally had enough time with the system to figure out the drop rates and exactly what it takes to get the game’s rarest items.

The basics of the drop rates are published on the official site, but there’s one significant outlier – the Heirloom box. This special set type, currently only available for Wraith, includes three items, and has a less than 1% chance of dropping every time you open an Apex Pack. There’s also a sort of mercy rule which guarantees you an Heirloom set after 500 Apex Packs.

You’re going to get very close to that pity cut-off before you get the Heirloom drop, as a feature from Polygon breaks down. Across YouTube videos and other community reports, every Heirloom drop seems to be on the immediate cusp of 500 packs, if not the result of the actual pity rule. Nobody’s seen enough reports to render a definitive verdict on the precise drop rate, but there’s enough anecdotal evidence to suggest it’s very bad.

The melee skin included in the set is often called the “$500 knife” because you’ve got to open 500 packs to get it – though in truth, it’s a bit cheaper following the free packs you get from playing the game and the bonus cash you get from buying currency in bulk. But it’s still hundreds upon hundreds of dollars to pick up a small selection of in-game items.

“Apex Legends’ Heirloom box is a trap to lure you into spending more money than you would otherwise spend on loot boxes,” Polygon concludes. You’ve probably seen the Redditor who spent $500 to get the Heirloom set and concluded “it wasn’t worth it.” I won’t tell you how to spend your money, but you should be aware of just how badly the odds are stacked against you here.

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There are rumours that the Apex Legends battle pass could launch as soon as this week, which – ideally – will mean a fairer way of getting new cosmetics and items for your Legends of choice.