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Here are CS:GO’s loot box odds


Thanks to the Chinese ministry of culture’s law from earlier this year, games which feature a loot box system must publish the likelihood of each of their potential drops, er, dropping. Now that CS:GO has finally had an official Chinese launch, Valve’s local partners Perfect World have released those odds.

Here’s what’s in CS:GO’s latest patch.

Here’s the announcement on CS:GO’s Chinese website, which (apparently) also links to a real-time feed of in-game drops which neither you nor I will be able to read.

oOMeowthOo on Redditprovided atranslation – which, surprising no-one, is a lot easier to read than Google’s – but it’s still not very clear, probably because Perfect World have presented the odds in terms that relate each rarity tier to the last. That is: this is how rare a yellow drop is compared to a red, compared to a pink, compared to a purple, compared to a blue, and so on.

It’s very opaque, perhaps deliberately, but hansjc has scored the top-voted comment by crunching the numbers. Say you could open 125.12 cases. Based on Perfect World’s ratios, here’s what would drop:

  • Blue – 100 items – 79.92%
  • Purple – 20 items – 15.98%
  • Pink – 4 items – 3.2%
  • Red – 0.8 items – 0.64%
  • Yellow – 0.32 items – 0.26%

Perfect World also say that any grade of item has a 10% chance of dropping its Stat-trak variant. So that’s a 0.026% chance of scoring a yellow stat-track item. Sweet.